
Should Countries Boost Fossil Fuel Production to Reduce Reliance on Other Countries, Eliminating Political Risk?
In the Competitive Economy section of this site, I discussed that it can be risky to rely on other countries for energy. This begs the question: instead of diversifying energy sources to reduce the dependence on other countries, why not increase fossil fuel production within the country? Theoretically, this tactic should increase energy supply and reduce costs (based on the classic supply and demand relationship). Aside from the question of where oil producers will drill, these firms also remain focused on financial long-term sustainability, which may not be achieved through short-term production boosts. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, the break-even price (i.e., the price required to remain profitable) for new drilling projects ranged between $59 and $70 per barrel in 2024 (Rapier, 2025). At this time, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices were roughly $71 per barrel, making new drilling projects somewhat profitable but not profitable to justify large-scale investments (Rapier, 2025). Many producers consider the risk of overproduction, which has historically led to price downturns and losses for companies (recall 2020) (Rapier, 2025). In addition to drilling projects being minimally profitable, in 2019, the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC) reduced their estimated forecast for oil and gas drilling activity, suggesting challenges in the industry (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation [CBC], 2019). As a result, it seems that exploration and production companies are putting their cash toward reinvesting in shareholders, decreasing debt and investing elsewhere instead of investing in new crude oil production (CBC, 2019).